Optimism is useful for starting. It is less useful for risk control. A premortem gives you permission to be specific about failure without abandoning the decision.
The premortem questions
- Imagine it is 30 days later and the decision went badly. What failed?
- What were the most likely causes?
- Which warning signal would show up first?
- What can you do now to reduce that risk?
- What stop condition means you should reverse, pause, or renegotiate?
Keep it concrete
Weak premortem: "I might regret it." Better premortem: "I might accept a project without a written scope, then spend nights handling unpaid revisions." The second version gives you a prevention action: write the scope before accepting.
When to use it
Use a premortem before career changes, major purchases, project commitments, hiring decisions, and relationship or family decisions where the cost of delay or reversal is meaningful.
Turn risk into action
A premortem is not a reason to freeze. It is a bridge from vague anxiety to concrete risk control. Once the warning signal and prevention action are written, make the smallest next action visible.